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Forex News Timeline

Monday, June 1, 2020

The OPEC and Russia are moving closer to a compromise on the duration of record oil output cuts extensions, Reuters cites two OPEC+ sources on Monday.

The OPEC and Russia are moving closer to a compromise on the duration of record oil output cuts extensions, Reuters cites two OPEC+ sources on Monday. The sources now say that the OPEC and Russia are now discussing one to two months output cuts extension.   more to come ...

The UK manufacturing sector activity contracted as expected in the month of May, the final report from IHS Markit showed this Monday. The seasonally a

The UK manufacturing sector activity contracted as expected in the month of May, the final report from IHS Markit showed this Monday.  The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised up to 40.7 in May versus 40.7 expected and 40.6 – May’s first reading.   more to come ...

Hong Kong SAR Retail Sales above forecasts (-45.8%) in April: Actual (-36.1%)

United Kingdom Markit Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (40.7) in May

The USD/CAD pair tumbled to near three-month lows, around the 1.3675 region in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. Following

USD/CAD comes under some fresh selling pressure on Monday amid sustained USD selling bias.A modest pullback in crude oil prices undermined the loonie and helped limit any further losses.The USD/CAD pair tumbled to near three-month lows, around the 1.3675 region in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. Following the previous session's good two-way price moves, the pair came under some fresh selling pressure on the first day of a new trading week and broke below the 100-day SMA support near the 1.3700 mark. The downward trajectory was sponsored by the prevalent US dollar selling bias and seemed rather unaffected by a mildly weaker tone surrounding crude oil prices. The greenback added to its recent losses and remained depressed amid rising optimism over the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. The upbeat market mood was further supported by the fact that the US President did not withdraw from the US-China phase-one trade deal in reaction to the dragon nation's move to tighten control over Hong Kong. Adding to this, widespread riots in the US further undermined the USD demand, which turned out to be one of the key factors exerting some heavy pressure on the USD/CAD pair. However, a modest pullback in crude oil prices, now down around 1$ for the day, undermine the commodity-linked currency loonie and assisted the pair to quickly rebound around 50 pips. The pair was last seen trading around the 1.3725 region, though lacked any strong follow-through. hence, any subsequent recovery move might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the 1.3750 resistance zone. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI. The data might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some meaningful trading opportunities later during the early North American session. Technical levels to watch  

Citing people familiar with the situation, Bloomberg reports that the Chinese government officials have told major state-run agricultural firms to pau

Citing people familiar with the situation, Bloomberg reports that the Chinese government officials have told major state-run agricultural firms to pause purchases of some American farm goods, including soybeans, as Beijing looks to evaluate the recent escalation in tensions between the US and China. The sources said: “Chinese buyers are also said to have canceled an unspecified number of US pork orders, although private companies have not been told to halt imports yet.” Market reaction The US dollar is seeing a bit of a bounce on the above report, which is seen souring the risk sentiment. The US dollar index recovers from 97.85 lows, now looking to regain the 98 handle.

European Monetary Union Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 39.4 below forecasts (39.5) in May

Greece Markit Manufacturing PMI up to 41.1 in May from previous 29.5

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is likely to move within a consolidative mood in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highl

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is likely to move within a consolidative mood in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that ‘the consolidation phase appears to be coming to an end and USD could drop towards 107.20’. We added, ‘the next support at 107.00 is unlikely to come into the picture’. While our view was not wrong as USD dropped to 107.06, the subsequent robust rebound came as a surprise (USD touched 107.89 during late-NY hours). The rapid swings have resulted in a mixed outlook and for today, USD could trade in a choppy manner between 107.20 and 108.00.” Next 1-3 weeks: “USD came close to the bottom of our expected 107.00/108.00 range last Friday (29 May) before rebounding quickly. For now, we continue to hold the same view that USD is likely to trade sideways. As highlighted last Wednesday (27 May), only a daily closing out of the expected 107.00/108.00 range would suggest the start of a more sustained movement in USD.”

Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI below expectations (36.8) in May: Actual (36.6)

China’s Foreign Ministry is out with a statement on Monday, noting that Beijing will have firm countermeasures on US actions. Additional quotes Reite

China’s Foreign Ministry is out with a statement on Monday, noting that Beijing will have firm countermeasures on US actions. Additional quotes Reiterates that the US should 'correct its mistakes'. Urges the US to stop 'going down the wrong path'. Repeats that China will resolutely defend its own security, development interests. More to come ...

France Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 40.6, above expectations (40.3) in May

The USD/JPY pair edged lower on the first day of a new trading week and was last seen trading near session lows, around mid-107.00s. The pair failed t

USD/JPY continued with its struggle to make it through 50-DMA amid sustained USD selling.The upbeat market mood undermined the safe-haven JPY and helped limit any deeper losses.Market participants now look forward to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for a fresh impetus.The USD/JPY pair edged lower on the first day of a new trading week and was last seen trading near session lows, around mid-107.00s. The pair failed to capitalize on Friday's goodish intraday recovery move of around 80 pips from two-week lows and continued with its struggle to make it through 50-day SMA. The USD/JPY pair once again started retreating from the vicinity of the 108.00 round-figure mark amid the continuous offered tone surrounding the US dollar, albeit the upbeat market mood helped limit any meaningful downfall. The greenback remained depressed amid hopes of a sharp V-shaped recovery for the global economy and the recent optimism over a potential COVID-19 vaccine. This coupled with widespread riots in the US, following George Floyd's death at the hands of Minneapolis police, further pressured the buck and contributed to the USD/JPY pair's mildly weaker tone through the Asian session on Monday. Meanwhile, the US President Donald Trump began the process of ending Hong Kong's special status but did not withdraw from the US-China phase-one trade deal. Adding to this, signs of recovery in the Chinese economy from the coronavirus pandemic remained supportive of the upbeat market mood. This, in turn, undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and extended some support to the USD/JPY pair. Looking at the broader picture, the pair has been oscillating in a narrow trading band between the 107.00-108.00 levels over the past two weeks or so. This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained break in either direction before traders start positioning for the pair's near-term trajectory. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The data might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities later during the early North American session. Technical levels to watch  

Italy Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 45.4, above expectations (37.1) in May

AUD/USD remains on track to reach the 0.6770 region in the short-term horizon, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We exp

AUD/USD remains on track to reach the 0.6770 region in the short-term horizon, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected AUD to consolidate within a 0.6580/0.6670 range last Friday. AUD subsequently popped to a high of 0.6683 before easing off to close at 0.6674 (+0.55%). The strong price action upon opening this morning suggests AUD could strengthen further from here. That said, AUD may not be able to maintain a toe-hold above 0.6735 (next resistance is at 0.6770). Support is at 0.6670 followed by 0.6650.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (29 May, spot at 0.6630) we highlighted that AUD ‘could ill-afford to consolidate at these overbought levels or risk of a top would increase quickly’. AUD subsequently eked out a fresh high of 0.6683 before closing at 0.6674 (+0.55%). The strong price action upon opening this morning has resulted in an improvement in momentum but in view of the severely overbought conditions, AUD has to post a daily closing above 0.6705 before further sustained advance towards 0.6770 can be expected. On the downside, a breach of 0.6605 (‘strong support’ level was at 0.6550 last Friday) would indicate that the positive phase that started 2 weeks ago (see annotations in chart below) has run its course.”

Spain Markit Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (38) in May: Actual (38.3)

The AUD/USD pair caught some aggressive bids on Monday and rallied to near four-month tops, around mid-0.6700s. A combination of supporting factors as

AUD/USD gained some strong traction on Monday and broke through 200-DMA barrier.The upbeat market mood and sustained USD selling remained supportive of the move.Technical buying above 0.6700 further collaborated to the pair’s strong bullish trajectory.The AUD/USD pair caught some aggressive bids on Monday and rallied to near four-month tops, around mid-0.6700s. A combination of supporting factors assisted the AUD/USD pair to build on its recent bullish momentum witnessed over the past two weeks or so and gain some strong positive traction on the first day of a new trading week. The momentum confirmed a fresh breakout through the very important 200-day SMA and was being supported by the upbeat market mood, the continuous offered tone surrounding the US dollar. Investors breathed a sigh of relief after the US President Donald Trump began the process of ending Hong Kong's special status but did not withdraw from the US-China phase-one trade deal. This comes amid the latest optimism over a potential COVID-19 vaccine, the re-opening of economies and hopes of a sharp V-shaped recovery for the global economy, which remained supportive of the upbeat market mood. Moreover, upbeat Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI further underpinned the prevalent risk-on environment, which continued denting the greenback's relative safe-haven status and provided a goodish lift to the perceived riskier Australian dollar. Adding to this, the buck was further pressured by widespread riots in the US, following George Floyd's death at the hands of Minneapolis police. Apart from this, possibilities of some short-term trading stops being triggered on a sustained move beyond 200-DMA and the 0.6700 round-figure mark further collaborated to the pair's strong upsurge on Monday. The pair was last seen trading near the highest level since early February. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI. The data might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some meaningful trading opportunities later during the early North American session. Technical levels to watch  

Alok Sharma, the UK Business Minister, said in a statement on the coronavirus lockdown easing on Monday, “overall view from the scientific advisory co

Alok Sharma, the UK Business Minister, said in a statement on the coronavirus lockdown easing on Monday, “overall view from the scientific advisory committee is that we should lift lockdown cautiously and that is what we are doing.” Over the weekend, the scientific advisers to the UK government warned of the risk of lifting the lockdown in England. On Thursday, Boris Johnson confirmed the relaxing of lockdown. At the same televised briefing, the PM's Chief Science Advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance, warned there was "not a lot of room" for maneuver and the data "urges caution", as cited by BBC News. GBP/USD battles 1.2400 Amid mixed comments on the UK lockdown easing and Brexit jitters, GBP/USD fails to keep the gains above 1.2400. However, broad-based US dollar weakness caps any downside moves. At the press time, the cable gains 0.36% to trade near 1.2390 region.

In a meeting with ruling party lawmakers, Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe said that the government will submit its second additional budget pr

In a meeting with ruling party lawmakers, Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe said that the government will submit its second additional budget proposal to the parliament early next week. The budget would fund a new USD1.1 trillion stimulus package to tackle the coronavirus impact on the economy. Key quotes “We’d like to submit (the second extra budget) to parliament early next week.” “We need to protect businesses and jobs.” Market reaction The yen appears to have caught fresh bids on the above comments while USD/JPY remains mainly driven down by the broad-based US dollar weakness. The spot drops 0.22% to 107.52, having hit a daily low of 107.49 in the last minutes. Forex Today: Dollar hit by escalating US riots, risk-on mood; US ISM PMI in focus amid light trading

Cable could extend the upside momentum to the 1.2465 level if 1.2380 is cleared, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expec

Cable could extend the upside momentum to the 1.2465 level if 1.2380 is cleared, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected GBP to strengthen last Friday but were of the view that ‘the prospect for a sustained rise beyond 1.2380 is not high’. While GBP subsequently moved above 1.2380, it retreated after touching 1.2394. While the overall outlook appears to be positive for GBP, upward momentum has not improved by much. For today, there is scope for GBP to edge above 1.2400 but the next resistance at 1.2430 is unlikely to come under threat. On the downside, only a move below 1.2310 (minor support is at 1.2335) would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We indicated last Friday (29 May, spot at 1.2315) that GBP ‘has to close above 1.2380 before a sustained advance can be expected’. GBP subsequently rose to 1.2394 before easing off to close at 1.2347 in NY (+0.24%). Upward momentum has improved slightly and we continue to wait for a daily closing above 1.2380 before adopting a more a positive outlook in GBP. The prospect for such a move is quite high as long as GBP does not move below 1.2275 within these 1 to 2 days. Looking ahead, a daily closing above 1.2380 could lead to an advance in GBP towards 1.2465, possibly above 1.2500.”

Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) meets expectations (-7.4%) in May

Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM) below forecasts (44.8) in May: Actual (39.2)

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is shedding further ground at the beginning of the week and is now putting the 98.00 mark to the

DXY drops further and breaches the 98.00 mark.Risk-on sentiment continues to hurt the dollar on Monday.ISM Manufacturing PMI, Markit’s PMI next on the US docket.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is shedding further ground at the beginning of the week and is now putting the 98.00 mark to the test. US Dollar Index looks to data The index is losing ground for the fifth consecutive session on Monday, challenging the key support at 98.00 the figure and opening the door to a potential test of the Fibo retracement (of the 2017-2018 drop) at 97.87. In the meantime, investors continue to assess the rising protests in several US cities amidst the coronavirus pandemic and increasing risks of further contagion. In the US data space, the most salient event on Monday will be the ISM Manufacturing seconded by the final manufacturing PMI gauged by Markit for the month of May. What to look for around USD The greenback remains under heavy pressure at the beginning of the month, threatening to extend the downtrend well below the 98.00 mark against the backdrop of firm risk-on sentiment. In the meantime, the dollar remains vigilant on the US-China trade front, the gradual return to some sort of normality in the US economy and the broader risk appetite trends as main drivers of the price action. On the constructive stance around the buck, it remains the safe haven of choice among investors, helped by its status of global reserve currency and store of value. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is retreating 0.36% at 97.94 and faces the next support at 97.89 (monthly low Jun.1) followed by 97.87 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 97.35 (low Jan.31). On the upside, a break above 98.50 (200-day SMA) would aim for 99.04 (100-day SMA) and finally 99.98 (high May 25).

USD/INR drops 0.20% while flashing 75.38 as a quote amid Monday’s initial Indian session. While bearish MACD and a three-week-old falling trend line k

USD/INR drops to 13-day low while flashing three-day losing streak.Indian PM Narendra Modi to chair special cabinet meeting, big decisions are expected amid coronavirus outbreak in the Asian nation.A sustained break of near-term key support will highlight late-March low, 100-day EMA for sellers.Bulls will look for entry beyond three-week-old resistance line.USD/INR drops 0.20% while flashing 75.38 as a quote amid Monday’s initial Indian session. While bearish MACD and a three-week-old falling trend line keep the buyers away, a confluence of 50-day EMA and a two-month-long rising support line is likely challenging the bears for now. As a result, further selling pressure could be expected if the pair registers a daily closing below 75.30, which in turn will drag the USD/INR prices towards 74.45/40 support zone comprising 100-day EMA and March 27 low. Additionally, the pair’s further selling past-74.40 might not hesitate to visit 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of February-April upside, at 73.50. Meanwhile, buyers are less likely to enter any long positions unless the pair crosses the immediate resistance line, at 76.07 now, on a daily closing basis. In doing so, May month high near 76.20 and April 22 to close to 77.00 will be in the spotlight. USD/INR daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Hong Kong’s (HK) Finance Secretary Paul Chan said in a statement on Monday, the city’s government has no plans to change its currency’s peg to the US

Hong Kong’s (HK) Finance Secretary Paul Chan said in a statement on Monday, the city’s government has no plans to change its currency’s peg to the US dollar, especially after the US removed its special treatment. Key quotes “Confident in defending the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate.” “Foreign exchange reserves twice the size of the entire monetary base and liquidity in the banking system very healthy and strong.” “Capital will continue to flow freely in and out of Hong Kong.” Market reaction After a volatile start to the week in early Asia, USD/HKD is consolidating in a tight range around 7.7525. The spot hit a daily high of 7.7547 and a day’s low of 7.7513.

Russia HSBC Manufacturing PMI up to 36.2 in May from previous 31.3

FX option expiries for June 1 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1000 3.8bn 1.1100 1.7bn 1.1250 2.5b

FX option expiries for June 1 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1000 3.8bn 1.1100 1.7bn 1.1250 2.5bn - GBP/USD: GBP amounts         1.2210 428m 1.2220 471m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          107.40 525m 107.80 820m 108.05 881m 108.10 450m 108.25 375m 108.30 680m

While extending its pullback from 17.67, USD/ZAR declines to 17.44, down 0.62% on a day, during the pre-European session on Monday. The pair’s recent

USD/ZAR again reverses from 17.67, needs to mention about 50-day EMA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.A month-old support line, 100-day EMA lure the bears.Bearish MACD keeps the buyers away unless breaking a five-week-old resistance line.While extending its pullback from 17.67, USD/ZAR declines to 17.44, down 0.62% on a day, during the pre-European session on Monday. The pair’s recent weakness joins the bearish MACD signals to aim for 50% Fibonacci retracement of March-April upside, around 17.30. However, a confluence of 100-day EMA and a falling trend line from April 30, around 17.15/10, could challenge the sellers afterward. On the upside, the pair’s break above 17.67 pushes it towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day EMA, near 17.78/82. If at all the bulls manage to cross 17.82 on a daily closing basis, a confluence of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line from April 24, surrounding 18.40/35, will be in the spotlight. USD/ZAR daily chart Trend: Sideways    

Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 1: The US dollar took a beating across the board starting out a new month/ week, as markets breathed a s

Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 1: The US dollar took a beating across the board starting out a new month/ week, as markets breathed a sigh of relief on the US’ softer stance on China. On Friday, US President Donald Trump left the trade deal intact with China while withdrawing Hong Kong’s special status against Beijing’s national security legislation for HK. The dollar weakness was also backed by the escalating riots in the US cities, with curfews imposed on major cities, as demonstrators ignore warnings from President Trump. This comes in light of the protestors venting fury at the death of George Floyd. The Asian stock markets reached three-month highs amid optimism over the global economic re-openings and de-escalating US-China tensions. Most majors rallied on broad dollar weakness, with AUD/USD outperforming at four-month highs just shy of the 0.6750 level. An unexpected expansion in the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI boosted the sentiment further in the commodity-currencies.   USD/JPY was pressured by the ongoing weakness in the greenback while the rally in Treasury yields and a bounce in S&P 500 futures failed to impress the bulls. EUR/USD headed back to two-month highs of 1.1146 while GBP/USD traded firmer but failed to resist above 1.2400 amid Brexit jitters. The Brexit talks between the UK and EU are set to begin Tuesday.  Monday’s economic calendar is eventful despite the thin market conditions, with most major European markets closed in observance of Whit Monday. Of relevance remains the Euro area and UK final Manufacturing PMI reports. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May will steal the show in the NA session. Gold prices traded with sizeable gains around $1,740, looking to regain the 1750 mark. WTI oil corrected lower to test the 35 level.   Cryptocurrencies consolidated Sunday’s rally, with Bitcoin holding above $9,500. Cardano extended the bullish move above $0.08, with eyes on $0.10.    

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain constructive on EUR/USD and expect a potential test of the 1.1150 region in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain constructive on EUR/USD and expect a potential test of the 1.1150 region in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that ‘the swift advance is in overbought territory but EUR could have enough fuel in its tank for a push above 1.1100’. We added, ‘a break of the late-March peak near 1.1145 would come as a surprise’. Our view was not wrong as EUR eased off after touching 1.1144. Conditions remain overbought but the current EUR strength appears to be tenacious and from here, EUR could edge above 1.1145. That said, EUR is unlikely able to maintain a toe-hold above this level (next resistance is at 1.1190). Support is at 1.1095 but the stronger level is at 1.1070.” Next 1-3 weeks: “On Wednesday (27 May, spot at 1.0970), we highlighted that the ‘outlook for EUR is mildly positive’. We added, EUR ‘has to close above 1.1020 before a more sustained advance can be expected’. While our positive view for EUR was not wrong, we did not expect the sudden upward acceleration that sent to a high of 1.1093 yesterday (28 May). From here, the outlook is clearly still positive but the strong boost in momentum suggests EUR could continue to advance towards the late-March peak near 1.1145. To look at it another way, instead of mildly positive, the current outlook for EUR is clearly positive. Only a breach of 1.0980 (‘strong support’ previously at 1.0900) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

Asian equities witness the sea of green, led by stocks in Hong Kong and China, ahead of Monday’s European session. While US President Donald Trump’s r

MASCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares, ex-Japan, surges to three-month top.US President Trump’s tenderness helped initial upside, USD weakness added the strength in momentum.China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI also pleased the bulls at the start of the key week.Headlines activity numbers from the US, EU and the UK will offer immediate direction, geopolitical headlines are the key.Asian equities witness the sea of green, led by stocks in Hong Kong and China, ahead of Monday’s European session. While US President Donald Trump’s refrain from any sanctions on China during Friday’s conference offered initial relief to markets, weak US Dollar adds strength to the upside momentum. The US dollar index (DXY), a gauge of the greenback versus the major currencies, drops 0.26% to 98.03 by the press time. In doing so, the US currency index nears the lowest since March 17, 2020. Other than the risk-on sentiment, riots in the US also seem to weigh on the USD. As a result, the MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gains over 2.0% to revisit the early-March month high whereas Japan’s NIKKEI gain 0.50% to 21,990 as we write. It’s worth mentioning that China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI also contributed to the market’s optimism by jumping back above the expansion region with a 50.7 mark. As a result, stocks in China are also gaining more than 2.0% with Hang Seng rising over 3.50% to 23,770 by the time of writing. The updates also help Australia’s ASX 200 and New Zealand’s NZX 50 to print 0.55% and 0.75% respectively. Additionally, India’s BSE SENSEX also benefits from the Asian optimism with over 3.0% gains to 33,410. Looking forward, monthly readings of key activity data from the US, Europe and the UK are likely to entertain the markets going forward. Though, major attention will be given to the qualitative catalysts.

Open interest and volume in Natural Gas futures markets rose by around 19K contracts and by almost 97K contracts, respectively, on Friday, according t

Open interest and volume in Natural Gas futures markets rose by around 19K contracts and by almost 97K contracts, respectively, on Friday, according to flash figures from CME Group. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Friday’s small advance in prices of the commodity was in tandem of rising open interest and volume, which could be supportive of a near-term rebound. In fact, Natural Gas continues to navigate the lower bound of the recent range and at shouting distance from May’s lows near the $1.80 level per MMBtu. The potential rebound, however, carries the potential to extend to the key barrier at $2.00, although a stronger catalyst is needed to extend the move further north on a sustainable fashion.

In light of preliminary readings for crude oil futures markets from CME Group, traders added nearly 16.3K contracts to their open interest positions o

In light of preliminary readings for crude oil futures markets from CME Group, traders added nearly 16.3K contracts to their open interest positions on Friday. in the same line, volume rose for the second session in a row, this time by around 37.8K contracts. WTI now targets $40.00/bbl The recovery in crude oil prices remains well and sound. In fact, Friday’s positive price action in the WTI was on the back pf rising open interest and volume, which allows for the continuation of the rally and a probable move to the key $40.00 barrier per barrel in the short-term horizon.

USD/IDR extends last week bearish bias and hit a new two-month low at 14,607.50 in the last hour, as the sell-off in the greenback remains the key cat

USD/IDR remains near two-month lows just above 14,600. Dollar weakness – key catalyst for the declines. Oversold RSI on hourly sticks points to a bounce USD/IDR extends last week bearish bias and hit a new two-month low at 14,607.50 in the last hour, as the sell-off in the greenback remains the key catalyst behind the weakness. The risk-on market mood, reflective of the rally in the Asian stocks, offers some support to the Indonesian currency. However, the spot risks a bounce back above the 14,700 levels, in light of the near-term technical view. On the hourly sticks, the price continues to waver in a potential falling channel pattern, with a natural tendency to break to the upside. The spot, currently, flirts with the descending trendline support at 14,604, with the hourly-Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing south within the oversold conditions. This suggests that the cross could attempt a bounce back towards the descending trendline upside barrier at 14,743 levels. Alternatively, a false breakdown could be charted below 14,600 mark, as the bears look to test the 14,500 psychological support area. USD/IDR: Hourly chart   USD/IDR: Additional levels    

Open interest in gold futures markets shrunk for yet another session on Friday, this time by around 23K contracts according to advanced data from CME

Open interest in gold futures markets shrunk for yet another session on Friday, this time by around 23K contracts according to advanced data from CME Group. In the same line, volume went down by around 33.5K contracts. Gold could re-test 2020 highs Prices of the ounce troy of gold extended the recovery on Friday amidst diminishing open interest and volume. That said, while a potential test of yearly highs near $1,770 per ounce remains on the cards, the uptrend could be losing momentum.

USD/JPY drops to 107.61, down 0.18% on a day, during the pre-European session on Monday. The pair recently declines below 200-HMA as the US dollar ind

USD/JPY bears repeat the pullback move from 107.90.The greenback bears the burden of US President Donald Trump’s tenderness on China, riots in America.Highs marked since April 16 add to the upside barriers.107.40, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement act as immediate supports.USD/JPY drops to 107.61, down 0.18% on a day, during the pre-European session on Monday. The pair recently declines below 200-HMA as the US dollar index (DXY) stays pressured near 11-week low following President Trump’s no sanctions on China while also taking clues from riots in several states of the world’s latest economy. Read: Trump tenderness, China's Caixin, boost Asia Technically, the pair’s declines below the key HMA drag it further down toward 107.40 immediate support. However, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of May 13-19 upside around 107.25 could challenge the bears then after, if not then the sub-107.00 area could return to the charts. On the contrary, an upside clearance above the recent high around 107.90 isn’t a convincing sign for the pair’s run-up as multiple highs marked since April 16 around 108.10 act as the strong resistance. In a case where the bulls manage to cross 108.10, which is less likely considering the USD weakness, April month’s high near 109.40 will lure the buyers. USD/JPY hourly chart Trend: Bearish  

According to a document seen by Reuters on Monday, some of the Republican lawmakers plan to announce legislation this week, which aims to keep America

According to a document seen by Reuters on Monday, some of the Republican lawmakers plan to announce legislation this week, which aims to keep Americans from investing in foreign defense companies linked to China’s military. Key takeawaysRepresentatives Mike Gallagher, Jim Banks and Doug LaMalfa plan to introduce the bill, which would require Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to submit a report to Congress listing foreign defense companies that have “substantial contracts with, ties to, or support from” the Chinese military.”“Six months after the report is issued, American companies and citizens would be required to divest from those firms and would be banned from making new investments in them.” This comes after President Donald Trump said on Friday that his administration will study ways to safeguard Americans from the risks of investing in Chinese companies. Market reaction The US dollar is nursing losses around 98.00 when compared to its six main rivals, as the sentiment remains undermined by a better market mood and escalating US riots.

GBP/USD eases from the highest since May 11 to 1.2386, still positive 0.35% on a day, while heading into the London open on Monday.

GBP/USD prints three-day winning streak amid broad US dollar weakness.Calls of further help to British employees add to the upside momentum.Downbeat Brexit headlines confront the UK’s coronavirus (COVID-19) optimism amid the US-China tussle.UK/US PMIs will join qualitative catalysts to please the momentum traders.GBP/USD eases from the highest since May 11 to 1.2386, still positive 0.35% on a day, while heading into the London open on Monday. Although fears of hard Brexit, as well as criticism of the Tory government’s COVID-19 performance, keep looming the Cable traders, the greenback weakness seems to please the buyers ahead of the UK’s first revision of Manufacturing PMI for May. The US dollar seems to bear the burden of the market’s risk-on sentiment after US President Donald Trump stepped back sanctions on China during Friday’s conference. While portraying the same, the US 10-year Treasury Yields stay positive around 0.654% whereas stocks in Asia-Pacific print mild gains by the press time. On the other hand, UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak is likely to offer yet another help to the British workers and pre-pone the budget, to July, as per The Sun. Further, the BBC cites the Tory government’s notifications to ease virus-led lockdown measures after managing to cross 200,000 a day target capacity for virus testing by the end of May. As per the news, “From Monday in England primary schools will start to reopen and people can meet in groups of up to six. And vulnerable people in England and Wales will be able to go outdoors for the first time in months.” Talking about Brexit, the UK and the European Union (EU) both accuses each other to waste the time while being certain of the deadline. However, The Daily Mail said, “Brexit talks cannot go on forever and will need to conclude before the autumn, Britain has warned the EU.” While Tuesday’s Brexit negotiations between the EU and the British policymakers will be the key, today’s Manufacturing PMIs from the UK and the US will offer intermediate clues. It should also be noted that the US-China tussle is an additional catalyst worth observing. With that in the backdrop, the UK’s Manufacturing PMI for May is likely to remain close to the preliminary figures of 40.6, while likely being at 40.7, but a below 50.00 reading could keep the Cable bulls cautious. Technical analysis An upside clearance of the three-month-old resistance line needs to get validation from a 50-day EMA level of 1.2372 to challenge 100-day EMA around 1.2500. Meanwhile, a daily closing below the resistance-turned-support, at 1.2320 now, will highlight a two-week-old support line, at 1.2230.  

Following the bounce from near 1.1100 in early Asia, EUR/USD has entered a phase of consolidated near 1.1140 region ahead of the European open, as the

Broad USD sell-off, risk-on mood underpins EUR/USDEU recovery fund led optimism keeps EUR bulls hopeful. Focus shifts to the Eurozone/ US PMIs ahead of the key ECB verdict. Following the bounce from near 1.1100 in early Asia, EUR/USD has entered a phase of consolidated near 1.1140 region ahead of the European open, as the bulls await a fresh impetus for the next push above the 1.1150 mark. Broad-based US dollar weakness remains the main underlying factor behind the EUR/USD uptick, as the escalating riots in the American cities continue to down the buck. Minneapolis George Flyods death’s protests escalate ahead of the curfew, with multiple fires set near the White House, undermines the sentiment around the US currency. Moreover, US President Donald Trump’s softer approach on China over the Hong Kong security issue fueled a risk-on rally across the board and weakened the dollar further. Trump did not withdraw from the US-China phase one trade deal signed in January while removing Hong Kong’s special status. From a broader perspective, the EUR remains buoyed by the optimism over the European Union’s (EU) coronavirus EUR750 billion recovery fund proposed last month. Also, expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will likely boost the bond-buying at its monetary policy meeting this Thursday keep the bulls hopeful. In the day ahead, the major will continue to draw support from the dollar selling mode while holiday-thinned market conditions could also help EUR/USD regain the 1.1150 barrier. The focus remains on the Euro area final Manufacturing PMI reports and the key US ISM manufacturing PMI for fresh trading impetus. EUR/USD technical levels to watch The immediate resistance awaits at 1.1146/50 (2-month tops/ psychological level), above which 1.1200 is on sight. On the flip side, the pullbacks will meet demand at 1.1097 (daily low) and 1.1015/12 (10 and 200-DMA). EUR/USD additional levels  

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 181,815 with a total of 8,511 deaths, as reported by the German disease and epidemic control center,

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 181,815 with a total of 8,511 deaths, as reported by the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), on Monday. Cases increased by 333 in Germany on Monday. The death count rose by 11, the tally showed. EUR/USD firmer above 1.1100 EUR/USD heads back towards the two-month highs of 1.1146 in Asia this Monday, as the US dollar continues to lose ground across the board amid reduced safe-haven buying and escalating US riots. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades at 1.1135, up 0.32% on the day.

WTI fades the early-Asian session upside momentum while taking rounds to $35.50 amid the initial trading on Monday. In doing so, the black gold seesaw

WTI seesaws around 7-week-old resistance line, retreats from highest since March 11.A short-term ascending trend line on the bears’ radars during the pullback.100-day SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement together offers strong upside barrier.WTI fades the early-Asian session upside momentum while taking rounds to $35.50 amid the initial trading on Monday. In doing so, the black gold seesaws around 12-week top while clinging to an upward sloping trend line from April 09 amid overbought RSI conditions. As a result, sellers are looking for an entry during the energy benchmark’s drop below $35.00 to visit an ascending support line stretched since May 14, 2020, at $32.34 now. If at all the buyers manage to provide a daily closing beyond the said resistance line above $35.55, a confluence of 100-day SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of February-April fall near $36.80-37.00 will be in the spotlight. WTI daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Speaking at a regular news conference on Monday, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said the situation in Hong Kong is deeply concerning,

Speaking at a regular news conference on Monday, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said the situation in Hong Kong is deeply concerning, adding that the stability is important. His comments come in response to China’s decision to impose a new security law on Hong Kong last month, which has triggered a fresh row between the US and China and kept investors on the edge. Market reaction The above comments have little to no impact on the Japanese yen, as USD/JPY continues to range around 107.70. The spot is divided between broad-based US dollar weakness and the risk-on rally in the Asian equities.

Moody’s Investors Service is out with its take on the Chinese support measures, announced at its annual plenary session last month, in an effort to ra

  Moody’s Investors Service is out with its take on the Chinese support measures, announced at its annual plenary session last month, in an effort to ramp up growth hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Key quotes “China's measures to support the economy and employment will have mixed credit implications. China's GDP will likely grow by 1% in 2020, followed by a rebound to 7.1% in 2021, although downside risks remain. Combined on-budget and off-budget fiscal measures to support the economy will total more than 8% of China's GDP.” Related article USD/CNH seen higher at 7.25 over the next three months – Goldman Sachs  

The Citibank analysts, in their latest client note, warned about the impending risks of the coronavirus pandemic that the market has failed to price-i

The Citibank analysts, in their latest client note, warned about the impending risks of the coronavirus pandemic that the market has failed to price-in, thus far. Key quotes “We definitely feel that the markets are way ahead of reality. We really are telling every client to tap the market if they can because we think the pricing now couldn't get any better. Second quarter … we start seeing the pain, and the collateral effects of that, we think this is going to be much tougher than it looks. Markets are pricing a V [shaped recovery], everyone's coming back to work, and this is going to be fine. Don't think it's going to be that easy quite frankly.”

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are trading with sizeable gains in Monday’s thin Asian market conditions, trading near a new weekly high of $1740.74. The extens

Gold bulls gathering pace for the next push higher. Dollar weakness amid easing US-China tensions, US riot offer support. Bullish technical set up suggests further gains ahead of US ISM PMI.Gold prices (XAU/USD) are trading with sizeable gains in Monday’s thin Asian market conditions, trading near a new weekly high of $1740.74. The extension of last week’s rally in the yellow metal is mainly driven by the sell-off in the US dollar across the board, in the wake of US-China trade war relief and escalating US riots. Friday’s US President Donald Trump’s speech on China’s forceful national security legislation on Hong Kong was softer-than-expected and did not target the trade relationship between the two countries. Therefore, the risk appetite returned and killed the haven demand for the greenback, which in turn benefitted gold. Looking at the near-term technical outlook for the precious metal, the further upside appears more likely, as the price is teasing a rectangle pattern breakout on the 15-minutes chart around 1741 levels. A breakout would call for a test of the intraday pattern target at $1750. Should the bulls sustain above the 1750 level, the multi-year highs at 1765.38 will be on the buyers’ radar. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well above the midline (50.0), near 60, suggesting further room for the upside, with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI next of relevance. The spot could remain supported so long as it holds above the upward sloping 21-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1737.44. A break below which, the bullish 5-bar SMA at 1734.86 could be tested. Further south, the 1730 level could come back into play ahead of the pattern horizontal trendline support at 1732.39. Gold: 15-minutes chart Gold: Additional levels  

Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict Yuan to fall further below 7.00 against the US dollar over the three-months, as US-China tensions are not seen subsi

Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict Yuan to fall further below 7.00 against the US dollar over the three-months, as US-China tensions are not seen subsiding soon. Key quotes “USD/yuan to 7.25 over the three months vs. prior forecast of 7.15. Out 6 months see some recovery to 7.15 vs. prior 7.05. 12 months forecast now seen at 7.00 vs. 6.90 previously. Uncertainty over U.S. policy toward China. Disputes cover a range of issues that are unlikely to be resolved soon. PBOC showing some tolerance for gradual currency depreciation. We do not expect recent bilateral tensions to escalate to 2019 levels, with spill overs to markets well beyond" non-Japan Asia.”

USD/CAD drops to 1.3720, down 0.45% on a day, amid the Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the Loonie pair slips below 100-day SMA to visit the lowe

USD/CAD registers another failure to break 50% of Fibonacci retracement, slips below 100-day SMA.A falling trend line from late-March, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200-day SMA on the bears’ radar.April month low adds to the upside barrier above 1.3810.USD/CAD drops to 1.3720, down 0.45% on a day, amid the Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the Loonie pair slips below 100-day SMA to visit the lowest level since March 12. While the pair’s further selling is dependent on its daily closing below 100-day SMA, at 1.3725 now, an upward sloping trend line from January 07, currently around 1.3710, adds to the support. In a case where the bears dominate past-1.3710, a descending trend line from March 27 at 1.3652 could please the bears. It should also be noted that the pair’s additional weakness below 1.3652 might not refrain from challenging 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of December 31, 2019 to March 19 upside, at 1.3606, ahead of aiming for 200-day SMA level of 1.3460. Alternatively, a daily closing beyond 50% of Fibonacci retracement, near 1.3810, could challenge April month low of 1.3851. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Bearish  

The bid tone around the NZD/USD pair strengthened following the release of the upbeat Chinese Caixin May Manufacturing PMI, driving the pair to hit th

NZD bulls flex their muscles on upbeat Chinese PMI and risk-on moodUpbeat market mood downs the US dollar across the board. US’ softer stance on China over Hong Kong adds to thin trading. The bid tone around the NZD/USD pair strengthened following the release of the upbeat Chinese Caixin May Manufacturing PMI, driving the pair to hit the highest levels in three months at 0.6247. At the press time, the spot trades at 0.6238, still up 0.63% on the day. The higher-yielding currencies such as the Antipodeans are lifted by a risk-friendly market environment. The risk appetite got boosted after US President Donald Trump refrained to take a hardline approach to China and its trade deal over the Hong Kong security issue last Friday. Meanwhile, broad-based US dollar weakness amid the improved market mood and intensifying riots in the US cities also adds to the upsurge in the spot. Further, thin market conditions on the back of a national holiday in New Zealand likely exaggerate the move in the kiwi. Looking ahead, the US dollar price action and risk sentiment will continue to play out amid holiday-thinned trading and ahead of the key US ISM Manufacturing PMI release. From a short technical perspective, the bulls now look for a convincing break above 0.6250, with eyes set on the 200-DMA barrier at 0.6314. To the downside, any correction could see the immediate support at 0.6206/0.6196 (5-DMA/ daily pivot point) and 10-DMA at 0.6170. NZD/USD additional levels to watch  

Tuesday’s RBA becomes the key, for now, US-China news and the US PMIs can offer intermediate clues. AUD/USD remains positive around 0.6730, the highes

AUD/USD carries Friday’s pullback from 0.6618 to remain strong above 0.6700.China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI offered a positive surprise to bear the below 50 marks.Markets seem to cheer US President Trump’s no sanctions on China, ignores worrisome headlines from the SCMP and Fox news.Tuesday’s RBA becomes the key, for now, US-China news and the US PMIs can offer intermediate clues.AUD/USD remains positive around 0.6730, the highest since February 12 after China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI flashed upbeat figures during Monday’s Asian session. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May beats 49.6 market consensus and 49.4 prior with 50.7 figures. On Sunday, China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI for May slipped below 51.00 forecasts and 50.8 prior to 50.6 whereas Non-Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.2 to 53.6 for the same month. Despite downbeat data from the biggest customer, the Aussie pair seems to cheer US President Donald Trump’s refrain from announcing any sanctions on the Asian major, as feared, due to its rush towards gripping more powers in Hong Kong. In doing so, markets seem to ignore the threats to the US-China relations, as cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), while also shrugging off harsh statements from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields rise two basis points to 0.664% while Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s ASX 200 are up 1.05% and 0.61% respectively by the press time. Traders may now gear up for Tuesday’s RBA monetary policy statement. While the Aussie central bank showed readiness to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19) led pessimism, Governor Philip Lowe recently praised the economic conditions. As a result, the RBA will be closely followed amid the mixed clues for near-term direction. Read: RBA Preview: Not enough to kick-start anything in AUD/USD at make-or-break levels It should also be noted that the US Manufacturing PMIs from the Markit and the ISM will also be followed, together with the US-China headlines, for immediate impact. Technical analysis Bulls will wait for a daily closing beyond the March month high of 0.6686 before looking at the 161.8% of March-May upside, near 0.6800. Failing to do so highlights an 11-day-old support line, currently around 0.6590/95, on the bears’ radars. Also read: Chart of the day: AUD/USD is at make-or-break resistance, 0.6400 or 0.6820  

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI has been released as follows: Caixin China Manufacturing PMI Caixin China Manufacturing PMI 50.7 beats expectations

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI has been released as follows: Caixin China Manufacturing PMI Caixin China Manufacturing PMI 50.7 beats expectations 49.6 and prior 49.4. This data follows China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which stayed above 50 in May, a bullish input for AUD. However, China's May factory activity demand remains weak. Reuters reported that China's factory activity unexpectedly returned to growth in May "as strict measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak were eased, but the improvement was marginal as export orders continued to shrink, a private business survey showed on Monday." Though modest, May's reading was the highest since January, driven by a sharp increase in output as companies got back to work and cleared outstanding orders. Supply chains also steadied after massive disruptions early in the year. But demand remained subdued. With many of China's trading partners deep in lockdowns of their own, new export orders remained firmly in contractionary territory, although the drop was not as sharp as in April. Consumers have also remained cautious amid job losses and fears or a fresh wave of infections. Although much of China's economy has reopened and the outbreak appears to have been contained, many manufacturers are struggling with reduced or cancelled overseas orders as global demand falters. Factories also continued to cut payrolls, but the pace of job shedding eased. Avoiding mass unemployment is a top government priority, with a target to create over 9 million urban jobs this year. "Sluggish exports remained a big drag on demand as the virus continued spreading overseas," said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group. "Stabilizing the job market is a top priority on policymakers' agenda this year, as shown in last month's government work report. Boosting employment is not an easy task, as the employment subindex in the Caixin manufacturing PMI survey has remained in contractionary territory for five months in a row," Wang said Market implications Growth has returned to the manufacturing sector, but new export orders and imports are still in contraction. Overseas demand in a post-COVI-19 world will be low for the forcible future so a recovery in manufacturing and employment in some sectors will remain challenging. Overall, trade wars are back on the agenda which is not going to be helpful for risk sentiment going forward. In such an environment, the yuan and Aussie can expected to struggle. Chart of the Day: AUD/USD is at make-or-break resistance, 0.6400 or 0.6820Description of the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™, released by Markit Economics, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.7 above expectations (49.6) in May

GBP/USD gains 0.45% on a day while taking the bids near 1.2400 amid Monday’s Asian session. The Cable seems to cheer the sustained break of 200-bar SM

GBP/USD breaks above 200-bar SMA to attack 1.2400 mark.61.8% Fibonacci retracement adds to the resistance beyond the channel’s upper line.Multiple lows marked on May 22 could offer rests after the channel’s downside break.GBP/USD gains 0.45% on a day while taking the bids near 1.2400 amid Monday’s Asian session. The Cable seems to cheer the sustained break of 200-bar SMA amid bullish MACD. Though, the resistance line of an ascending trend channel since May 17, near 1.2415 now, could question the bulls. If buyers keep the reins beyond 1.2415, 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s fall from April 14 to May 17, around 1.2430, could raise upside barriers for the quote. Meanwhile, a downside break below 200-bar SMA level of 1.2340 could push the GBP/USD prices back to the said channel’s support line of 1.2240. If at all the sellers dominate past-1.2240, May 22 lows near 1.2160 could become their favorite. GBP/USD four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

PBoC To Skip Open Market Ops Today PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 7.1315 (prev fix 7.1316 prev close 7.1348) PBoC Gauges Demand For 7, 14, 28 & 6

PBoC To Skip Open Market Ops Today
 PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 7.1315 (prev fix 7.1316 prev close 7.1348)
 PBoC Gauges Demand For 7, 14, 28 & 63 Day Reverse Repos

EUR/USD rises to 1.1120, up 0.20% on a day, during the Asian session on Monday. While keeping the sustained trading above the short-term resistance li

EUR/USD takes the bids near a nine-week top near 1.1150.Sustained trading above resistance line stretched from April 14 keeps the buyers hopeful, 200-day SMA adds to the support.61.8% Fibonacci retracement acts as immediate resistance ahead of mid-March high.EUR/USD rises to 1.1120, up 0.20% on a day, during the Asian session on Monday. While keeping the sustained trading above the short-term resistance line, now support, the quote stays near the highest since March 30, 2020. However, overbought RSI conditions seem to challenge the pair’s further downside. As a result, bulls are waiting for a fresh run-up beyond March 27 high 1.1147 to challenge 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1170. During the quote’s further advances past-1.1170, March 16 peak nearing 1.1240 could flash on the buyers’ radars. Alternatively, a daily close below the resistance-turned-support line, currently around 1.1075, could drag the quote back to a 200-day SMA level of 1.1012. EUR/USD daily chart Trend: Bullish  

AUD/USD has rallied in Tokyo, jumping from 0.6660 to a high of 0.6701. At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades at 0.6694 having travelled from a low of

AUD/USD jumped to test the 0.67 level in Tokyos open. Bulls relieved that Trump's China news conference didn't mention trade.AUD/USD has rallied in Tokyo, jumping from 0.6660 to a high of 0.6701. At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades at 0.6694 having travelled from a low of 0.6648 for the day. Liquidy is thinner in Asia, allowing for such spikes, but the feeling is that Friday could have gone a lot worse for risk sentiment enabling Aussie bulls some breathing room.  US President Donald Trump explained that the United States will move to sanction Chinese officials over the ‘smothering’ of Hong Kong. This was made in an address after the close on Wall Street where anticipation was high. Markets were braced for a mix of economic and political policies toward China. However, there was no mention of the trade deal between the two countries which was a major relief. The uncertainty from here does not only depend on how the US shapes its policies towards it after the removal of the special status but also on Mainland China's possible retaliation. Meanwhile, this could be the last dance before the Reserve Bank of Australia from the bulls, but European and US markets could be of the same positive mind, that we are some way away from any political decisions that would harm US position on the economic stage. The US already has enough on its plate with respect to COVID-19 and the riots. An escalation of the trade war is the last thing the US economy needs. For now, it is more of a war of words and markets are preferring to buy into the V– shape theory recovery in a post-COVID-19 world.  Looking ahead For the next catalysts, we will have When is China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and how could it affect the AUD/USD? and RBA Preview: Not enough to kick-start anything in AUD/USD at make-or-break levels AUD/USD levelsChart of the Day: AUD/USD is at make-or-break resistance, 0.6400 or 0.6820 

Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) declined to 0.1% in May from previous 1.2%

Australia TD Securities Inflation (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -1.2% in May

Having witnessed downbeat prints of China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI, not to forget the previous month’s failure to keep the expansion, China’s May month

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI overview Having witnessed downbeat prints of China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI, not to forget the previous month’s failure to keep the expansion, China’s May month Caixin Manufacturing PMI, up for publishing at 01:45 GMT on Monday, become the key for AUD/USD traders. Forecasts suggest another below-50 level of 49.6 versus the 49.4 prior, which in turn may raise challenges for the RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe who recently spoke positively for the economy. How could it affect the AUD/USD? Having initially surged to the 15-week high of 0.6715, AUD/USD takes rounds to 0.6690 by the press time of the early-Asian session on Monday. The pair might have cheered the US dollar weakness amid the Sino-American tussle and riots in some parts of the US. However, bears stay hopeful considering the latest disappointment from China’s official PMI data. Should the Caixin Manufacturing PMI outcome be another contraction suggesting mark under 50, the quote might step back to a two-week-old support line, at 0.6620 now. Alternatively, a surprise increase in the data, or a positive miss by a larger gap, can extend the Aussie pair’s rise further above 0.6700 towards February month’s peak surrounding 0.6775. Key Notes AUD/USD: Bulls attack 0.6700 ahead of China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI Chart of the day: AUD/USD is at make-or-break resistance, 0.6400 or 0.6820 AUD/USD Forecast: At multi-week highs, bullish About the China Caixin PMI The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™ is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.

A Friday tweet by Trump was flagged by Twitter for violating its rules about "glorifying violence," called protestors "THUGS" and used the phrase, "wh

A Friday tweet by Trump was  flagged by Twitter for violating its rules about "glorifying violence," called protestors "THUGS" and used the phrase, "when the looting starts, the shooting starts." Axios has noted that over the past couple of days, "numerous advisers both inside and outside the White House have urged the president to tone down his violent rhetoric, which many worry could escalate racial tensions and hurt him politically." Key notes Behind the scenes: The biggest source of internal concern was Trump's escalatory tweet, "when the looting starts, the shooting starts." Some advisers said it could damage him severely with independent voters and suburban women. After not going to sleep until the early hours of Friday morning, President Trump woke to a string of conversations with advisers who told him he had a problem. Why it matters: After so long working for him, Trump's inner circle usually shrugs at his tweets. So it's a rare moment when they sound the alarm. Market implications With this being election year, this not a market-friendly topic. Markets would prefer to see Trump in the elections in anticipation of cheaper money and stimulus to help the markets higher.     

Silver nears the highest since February 27 while taking the bids around $18.08, intraday high of $18.13, up 1.2% on a day, during Monday’s Asian session.

Silver prices take the bids near 13-week top.Sustained trading above 200-day SMA keeps the buyer hopeful amid bullish MACD.Overbought RSI also questions the optimists below a nine-month-old resistance line.Silver nears the highest since February 27 while taking the bids around $18.08, intraday high of $18.13, up 1.2% on a day, during Monday’s Asian session. Although overbought RSI conditions seem to probe the bulls, upbeat MACD and the bullion’s ability to remain beyond 200-day SMA speak louder of its strength. As a result, an upward sloping trend line from April 07, at $18.32, lures the buyers, for now. However, failures to step back from the short-term resistance-line could propel the quote further towards a descending trend line from the early-September 2019, currently around $18.55. Meanwhile, May 20 top near $17.63 could entertain the sellers during the pullback before a 200-day SMA level of $16.97. Additionally, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the metal’s fall from September 2019 to March 2020, at $16.60, could challenge the bears afterward. Silver daily chart Trend: Bullish  

South Korea Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI registered at 41.3 above expectations (41.1) in May

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (38.4) in May

AUD/NZD has been trading in a phase of consolidation sub the 1.08 hande following a prior failure. At the time of writing, the cross is trading at 1.0

Antepodens governed in a realm of geopolitics as a key driver.RBA, Aussie GDP and ongoing trade war headlines to dominate the cross. AUD/NZD has been trading in a phase of consolidation sub the 1.08 hande following a prior failure. At the time of writing, the cross is trading at 1.0744 having travelled between a low of 1.0735 and a high of 1.0755 on the session so far.  We are entering a realm of geopolitics as a key driver at the moment. The Aussie has been highly correlated to the equity markets which were mixed on Friday but the concerns around the Sino-US relationship and weak US consumer sentiment has been weighing on risk appetite.  US-China tensions running high AUD has been otherwise able to track positive performances on Wall Street as well as commodities. The energy sector continues to lead the complex higher, although it is expected to struggle in a trade war situation. The ramifications for financial markets could be enormous should the US and China get into a tit for tat exchange of response to a war of words.  The question is how far Trump will go having already removed Hong Kong's favoured status and further deteriorating the relationship with China. With US-China tensions running high, there are upside risks for USD/CNY and USD/CNH and therefore weigh on AUD. In fact, we have already seen the value of the CNY weaken vs. the USD which has raised concerns that China could be weaponising its currency to support external trade.RBA Preview: Not enough to kick-start anything in AUD/USD at make-or-break levelsLooking ahead for the week we have the Reserve Bank of Australia as well as Aussie Gross Domestic Produce. Expectations are for the data to decline for the first time since 2011. But there is a lot more uncertainty than usual this time, reflecting the huge forces impacting the economy. AUD/NZD levels
 

WTI eases from the highest since March 11 to $35.20 during Monday’s Asian session. Upbeat sentiment surrounding the Organization of the Petroleum Expo

WTI steps back from 13-week top of $36.04 flashed early in Asia.OPEC+ to pre-pone meeting, calls for 1-2 month extension to current output cuts are on the hike.US and China remain at loggerheads, riots in America add to the geopolitical worries.China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI can offer immediate direction to energy prices.WTI eases from the highest since March 11 to $35.20 during Monday’s Asian session. Upbeat sentiment surrounding the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, mostly known as OPEC+, earlier helped the black gold to refresh multi-day high to $36.04. However, fears of escalating US-China tensions seem to have challenged the energy bulls off-late. As per the energy intel reports conveyed by Amena Bakr, “the OPEC+ could meet on June 4 to decide on a market management policy that might extend the current production cut pact by up to two months." The oil producers’ group was earlier scheduled to meet on June 09 to re-discuss the extension of 9.7 million barrels of output cut that was agreed to take place till June 01. China seems not in a mood to appreciate US President Donald Trump’s step-back from any fresh sanctions, as feared, during the Friday’s conference. The reason could be spotted in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) article highlighting the dominance of groups calling for more ‘fighting spirit’. Also adding to the tension could be the latest comments by US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo. The Trump administration appeared for an interview with Fox News during the weekend and said, “this is a Chinese communist party that has come to view itself as intent upon the destruction of western ideas, western democracies, and western values.” It was also mentioned that the Chinese Communist Party’s military advances are real and that President Trump will always keep us in a position where we can protect the American people. It should also be noted that riots in some of the American states and downbeat figures of China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI added weakness into the black gold. Though the bears aren’t in dominance as China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May, expected 49.6 versus 49.4, is still not out. Also stopping the sellers could be the wait for the US activity numbers and further clarity over the US-China relations. Technical analysis Unless providing a daily closing beyond March 11 top near $36.65, bulls are less likely to get a confirmation in filling the gap between $41.21 and $35.08. On the contrary, the quote’s downside break of an ascending trend line from May 14, at $33.00 now, could trigger fresh fall towards $30.00.  

South Korea Trade Balance came in at $0.436B, above forecasts ($-3.427B) in May

South Korea Trade Balance came in at $0.44B, above forecasts ($-3.427B) in May

Japan Capital Spending above expectations (-4.2%) in 1Q: Actual (4.3%)

AUD/JPY drops to 71.70 ahead of the Tokyo open on Monday. The pair recently stepped back from the highest since February 28. However, bullish MACD and

AUD/JPY registers another failure to cross 200-day SMA.71.10-71.00 can offer immediate support ahead of 100-day SMA.January month low adds to the upside barriers.AUD/JPY drops to 71.70 ahead of the Tokyo open on Monday. The pair recently stepped back from the highest since February 28. However, bullish MACD and sustained trading beyond 100-day SMA keep the buyers hopeful. Even so, the quote’s pullback to 71.10-71.00 supply zone comprising late-May tops can’t be ignored. During the sellers’ dominance past-71.00, highs marked in late-April and early-May join 100-day SMA, around 70.20/15, to keep the further downside restricted. Should there be a clear decline below 70.15, May 14 high of 69.26 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of February-March fall, near 68.90, could lure the bears. On the upside, a daily closing beyond a 200-day SMA level of 72.14 needs to cross January month low of 72.44 to aim for the early February month’s low surrounding 73.00. AUD/JPY daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Gold prices remain firm around $1,739, intraday high $1,740.74, amid the pre-Tokyo Asian session on Monday. The bullion benefits from the escalation i

Gold prints three-day winning streak while extending pullback from May 27 low near $1,694.The US-China tussle joins riots in most parts of America to keep the risk aversion mode on.China’s Caixin PMI can offer intermediate direction while qualitative catalysts to keep the driver’s seat.Gold prices remain firm around $1,739, intraday high $1,740.74, amid the pre-Tokyo Asian session on Monday. The bullion benefits from the escalation in risk-off mood amid the tension between the US and China while also taking clues from the riots in America. Despite US President Donald Trump’s refrain from announcing any more sanctions on China, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) cites fears of worsening relations between the two. The reason cited by the Chinese daily is the dominance of groups calling for more ‘fighting spirit’ over those who favor dialogue and cooperation. On the other hand, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized the ruling party of China during his Fox interview. The Trump administration official said, “this is a Chinese communist party that has come to view itself as intent upon the destruction of western ideas, western democracies, and western values.” The diplomat also said that the Chinese Communist Party’s military advances are real.  Elsewhere, riots in the US are getting uglier with Chicago suspending bus and rail services until Monday morning. With these catalysts favoring the rush to risk-safety, S&P 500 Futures drop over 1.0% to 3,010 by the press time. Moving on, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May, expected 49.6 versus 49.4 prior, could offer immediate direction to the markets. However, geopolitical concerns are likely to remain in the spotlight. Technical analysis Having successfully breached 10-day EMA, currently around $1,728.65/60, Gold prices aim for May 20 high of $1,754 ahead of challenging the previous month's top near $1,765.40. Meanwhile, a downside break below 10-day EMA could drag the quote towards a 50-day EMA level of $1,691.60.  

Australia Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI registered at 44 above expectations (42.8) in May

Ahead of this week’s key Brexit negotiations between the UK and the European Union (EU) diplomats, The Telegraph came out with the news suggesting fur

Ahead of this week’s key Brexit negotiations between the UK and the European Union (EU) diplomats, The Telegraph came out with the news suggesting further hardships for both the ends in agreeing over the trade relations during 2021. Key quotes Britain has accused the EU of wanting to string out Brexit trade talks until the November deadline for an agreement in the hope of making the UK cave into its demands. With the latest round of negotiations beginning on Tuesday, Boris Johnson wants to up the pace of the talks after making it clear that he will not extend the transition period and will not budge on sovereignty issues such as fishing rights. Ministers are anxious to ensure that businesses have as much time as possible to prepare for whatever trading regime is in place when the UK’s current arrangements come to an end on December 31. They aim to make significant progress before Mr. Johnson holds a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in July, at which the Prime Minister will formally reject an offer of an extension of the Brexit deadline beyond December 31, 2020. FX implications While the news was already out at the weekend, GBP/USD seems to shrug off the negative signals. Even so, the Cable steps back from the intraday high of 1.2354 to 1.2348 amid the early Monday morning in Asia.

The Sun came out with the news suggesting additional efforts by the UK’s Tory government to help British workers. The report cited the UK Times, which

The Sun came out with the news suggesting additional efforts by the UK’s Tory government to help British workers. The report cited the UK Times, which relied on sources, to suggest extra spending on infrastructure and a government bailout for struggling companies. Key quotes The Chancellor wants to save millions of furloughed workers by retraining them, as well as splashing cash on British tech firms. Mr. Sunak wants to make his scheme the centerpiece of a budget statement to MPs scheduled for July. It comes after he warned last week that two million jobs would be lost unless pubs and restaurants, shut on March 23, are reopened. Boris Johnson has said he hopes pubs, restaurants and hotels may all re-open next month. Mr. Sunak’s budget statement will follow a speech by the PM at the end of next month. FX implications Except for an initial uptick to 1.2355 from 1.2334, GBP/USD seems to pay a little heed to the news by the early Asian session on Monday. The reason could be traced from the Cable buyers’ cautious sentiment ahead of this week’s key Brexit talks as well as the present tension between the US and China.

NZD/USD extends late-Friday pullback from 0.6214 towards flashing the intraday low of 0.6186, currently around 0.6190, during the initial Asian sessio

NZD/USD weighs down by the fresh escalation of the US-China tension.Sino-American tussle intensifies despite no fresh sanctions on the Asian major by US President Trump on Friday.China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI flashed soft figures, Caixin PMIs in focus.NZD/USD extends late-Friday pullback from 0.6214 towards flashing the intraday low of 0.6186, currently around 0.6190, during the initial Asian session on Monday. While US President Donald Trump’s refrain from announcing fresh sanctions on China seemed to have helped Kiwi pair during the late-last week, the recent weakness in the quote could be traced to the escalating tussle between the US and China. US and China stay at loggerheads… Although Friday’s China conference by US President Trump paved the way for diplomatic relations between the world’s top two economies, the recent developments suggest nothing has changed amid them. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) cited, based on the clues from an anonymous government adviser, the dominance of Chinese groups calling for more ‘fighting spirit’ over the moderates supporting the dialogue and cooperation to suggest that the US-China tension is set to worsen. US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, also added to the worries while stating that the Chinese Communist Party’s military advances are real. The Trump administration member also said that President Trump will always keep us in a position where we can protect the American people. Furthermore, the US diplomat additionally mentioned that this is a Chinese communist party that has come to view itself as intent upon the destruction of western ideas, western democracies, and western values. Other than the fears of the US-China tussle, the kiwi pair might also have taken clues from China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI for May. The official manufacturing activity gauge from the dragon nation dropped to 50.6 versus 50.8 prior and 51.00 forecasts in May. Traders are now waiting for China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May, expected 49.6 versus 49.4 prior, for fresh impulse. However, the US-China story will keep the markets active. Technical analysis Unless providing a clear break above May month high of 0.6241, sellers keep eyes on the downside break below 100-day SMA level of 0.6188 to revisit May 11 top near 0.6155. However, the pair’s further weakness past-0.6155 could recall sub-0.6100 on the chart.  

This is a Chinese Communist Party that has come to view itself as intent upon the destruction of Western ideas, Western democracies, and Western value

This is a Chinese Communist Party that has come to view itself as intent upon the destruction of Western ideas, Western democracies, and Western value, Secretay of State Mike Pompeo said.  "It puts Americans at risk, whether it’s stealing American intellectual property or destroying jobs here in the US." Market implications This is the second thing we have heard in as many hours of the duration of this week's open today from Pompeo, adding to the war of words between the US and China. Risk-off is evident in the price action of AUD/JPY today, falling from the 71.90s to a low of 71.60. US Sec of State Pompeo: The Chinese Communist Party’s military advances are realChart of the Day: AUD/USD is at make-or-break resistance, 0.6400 or 0.6820 

Australia AiG Performance of Mfg Index rose from previous 35.8 to 41.6 in May

USD/JPY declines to 107.72 amid the early Monday morning in Asia. The yen pair seems to portray the market’s fear of escalating tension between the US

USD/JPY drops from Friday’s close amid fresh risk aversion.US Secretary of State Pompeo said the threats from the Chinese Community Party’s military advances are real.US President Trump avoided major confrontations with China during Friday’s speech.Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI will decorate the calendar, US-China story could keep the traders busy.USD/JPY declines to 107.72 amid the early Monday morning in Asia. The yen pair seems to portray the market’s fear of escalating tension between the US and China despite the former’s President Donald Trump stepped back from any sanctions on the later during the recent speech. China’s SCMP cites fears of worsening American-Sino tensions… Despite US President Trump’s diplomatic performance on Friday, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) relies on anonymous government adviser comments to say that Chinese groups calling for more ‘fighting spirit’ are getting the upper hand on those who favor calm and cooperation. On the other hand, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also flashed red signals for the Asian major by saying that the Chinese Communist Party’s military advances are real. The US diplomat also said, in his latest interview by Fox, that President Trump will always keep us in a position where we can protect the American people. The US leader, Donald Trump, refrained from any direct sanctions on China during his press conference on Friday. However, the Republican leader did show his dislike for the situation in Hong Kong due to the Asian major’s will to grab the power. This pushed the US to shun trade preferences given to Hong Kong, details of which are unclear. Amid all these catalysts, Wall Street closed mixed on Friday while the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped over five basis points to 0.65%. Traders may now pay close attention to the US-China headlines for near-term direction. On the economic front, Japan’s first revision to Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, expected 38.4, could offer immediate direction ahead of the US ISM and Markit Manufacturing PMI. Technical analysis A downward sloping trend line from May 19, currently near 107.90 offers immediate resistance to the pair ahead of multiple highs marked since April 16 around 108.10. On the downside, 107.40/35, comprising May 16 high and May 27 low seems to challenge short-term bears.  

Energy Intelligence reports of a source that has said Opec+ will discuss extending the current 9.7 million bpd cuts for 1-2 months.

Energy Intelligence reports of a source that has said Opec+ will discuss extending the current 9.7 million bpd cuts for 1-2 months. 

The war of words has already started in the opening of the FX markets this week. US Secretary of State Pompeo has said that the Chinese Communist Part

The war of words has already started in the opening of the FX markets this week. US Secretary of State Pompeo has said that the Chinese Communist Party’s military advances are real.  Key quotes Our department of defense is doing everything it can to make sure it understands this threat. President Trump will always keep us in a position where we can protect the American people. Following last Friday's heated delivery from US President Donald Trump in his China news conference, US Pres. Trump: Will take steps to sanction Hong Kong officials involved in eroding of autonomy, markets are on standby for an official response from China. The South China Morning Post explained that Chinese groups are calling for more ‘fighting spirit’ and are getting the upper hand on those who favour calm and cooperation, a government adviser says. "From Hong Kong to Covid-19, trade to the South China Sea, Beijing and Washington are clashing on a growing number of fronts and in an increasingly aggressive way."   Chinese leader Xi Jinping has told the military, the People's Liberation Army, to prepare for war! This comes as a growing border dispute between India and China, and threats of invasion of Taiwan threaten the global order and peace as well as heightened tensions with the US.  Market implicationsChart of the Day: AUD/USD is at make-or-break resistance, 0.6400 or 0.6820

AUD/USD seesaws around 0.6660 at the start of Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair seems to pay a little heed to the weekend developme

AUD/USD stays modestly changed from Friday’s close.US President Trump refrained from any sanctions on China, for now, announced punitive measures for Hong Kong officials.China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI stays in expansion territory below 50.8 prior.Activity numbers from China, the US will be important whereas political/trade headlines could keep the driver’s seat.AUD/USD seesaws around 0.6660 at the start of Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair seems to pay a little heed to the weekend developments while beginning the June month mostly only the same front where it ended the May. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI softened, Caixin Manufacturing PMI awaited… In its May monthly activity data release, published Sunday, China’s NBS cited weakness in the Manufacturing front while portraying upbeat scenario for the Non-Manufacturing gauge. The headline NBS Manufacturing PMI weakened to 50.6 from 50.8 prior and 51.00 expected whereas the services indicator rose to 53.6 from 53.2. Traders now await private manufacturing activity data, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, up for publishing at 01:45 GMT, to confirm the official readings. The forecast suggests that the Caixin Manufacturing PMI might improve from 49.4 previous readouts but remain in the contraction region to 49.6 in May. Trump steps back reprimanding China… During his much-awaited China press conference, US President Donald Trump refrained from announcing any sanctions on the Asian major, which the markets widely anticipated. Rather, the Republican leader criticized the dragon nation’s approach and shunned trade help given to Hong Kong, the details of which were unclear. While the move disappointed markets in the initial minutes, it did keep the hope of peace between the US and China in the future. Even so, Wall Street closed with mixed performance whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 5.2 basis points (bps) to 0.653% by the end of Friday. During the weekend, US President Trump said to postpone the G7 meeting until September and added Australia, Russia, South Korea and India to the list of nations to garner support versus the dragon nation. On the other hand, South China Morning Post (SCMP) came out with the news suggesting, “Moderates who favor dialogue and cooperation as a way to resolve China’s disputes with the United States are losing ground to hardline groups bent on taking the fight to Washington, according to political insiders and observers.” Looking forward, Australia’s AiG Performance of Mfg Index, Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing Index and TD Securities Inflation figures for May could offer intermediate moves ahead of China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. Technical analysis Nearly overbought RSI conditions and multiple failures to cross March month high of 0.6686 keep AUD/USD cautious. However, sellers are also refraining for entries unless witnessing a break of 11-day-old support line, currently around 0.6590/95. Also read: Chart of the day: AUD/USD is at make-or-break resistance, 0.6400 or 0.6820  

The South China Morning Post has picked up on the escalating tensions between the US and China. In an article published over the weekend, it stated th

The South China Morning Post has picked up on the escalating tensions between the US and China. In an article published over the weekend, it stated that: US-China tensions set to worsen as moderates lose out to hardliners, observers say. Chinese groups calling for more ‘fighting spirit’ are getting the upper hand on those who favour calm and cooperation, government adviser says.  
Lead paragraphs From Hong Kong to Covid-19, trade to the South China Sea, Beijing and Washington are clashing on a growing number of fronts and in an increasingly aggressive way. Moderates who favour dialogue and cooperation as a way to resolve China’s disputes with the United States are losing ground to hardline groups bent on taking the fight to Washington, according to political insiders and observers. “There are two camps in China,” said a former state official who now serves as a government adviser and asked not to be named. “One is stressing the combat spirit, the other is trying to relieve tensions. And the former has the upper hand.” Relations between China and the US are under intense pressure. After Beijing moved to introduce a national security law for Hong Kong, US President Donald Trump said on Friday that Washington would begin eliminating the special policy exemptions it grants the city, as it no longer considers it autonomous from mainland China. Key notes US Pres. Trump: Will take steps to sanction Hong Kong officials involved in eroding of autonomy US Pres. Trump reportedly won't announce additional tariffs on China China: NBS Manufacturing PMI edges lower to 50.6 in May, remains in expansion territory Market implications This week will be very important for AUD while a whirlwind of geopolitical headlines are expected to run the show. For AUD/USD technical analysis, see here: Chart of the Day: AUD/USD is at make-or-break resistance, 0.6400 or 0.6820.    
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